Exit Polls

One of the most important facts to understand about the 2004 presidential election is that the exit polls for that race were expertly conducted, scientific, and well-funded surveys of the actual vote in 2004. The original exit polls--which is to say the actual, true, unadulterated exit polls-- revealed a clear Kerry victory, before an offline, middle-of-the-night "adjustment" for a novel, unsubstantiated theory known as the "Reluctant Republican Responder" (rRr) effect.

Late on election night, Nov. 2, 2004, the computer servers conducting the central tabulation were said to be "down" for a several hour period. At the time, Kerry was leading in the exit polls by a significant margin. Miraculously, when the servers came back online, a flip had occurred in the direction of the numbers with Bush now leading Kerry. Soon the Bush "lead" seemed to be insurmountable. Kerry then conceded.

To better understand this "Red Shift" of 2004, as well as other information about exit polls, please explore the following reports, inquiries and analyses. See also this excellent video presentation by EDA's Jonathan Simon on the statistical impossibility of the Bush 2004 victory.

Jonathan Simon on the 2004 Exit Polls: Bush Victory Statistically Impossible

Election Rigging 101: Exit Polls from EON Productions

Dr. Jonathan Simon demonstrates through statistical analysis that Bush's popular vote "victory" in 2004 is impossible. He explains the highly discredited "Bush Reluctant Responder" Theory used by pollster Mitovsky to 'adjust' the exit poll results was not supported by Mitovsky's own data and was in fact contradicted by it. This is an explosive commentary on the disastrous state of our democracy and the media complicity in propounding utterly unsubstantiated theories and mathmatically impossible election outcomes. Dr. Simon reports that we now have Faith-Based elections, not supported by independent, accurate vote tabulations. We are also cautioned that legislation (such as HR 550) that provide a highly inadequate audit of a "paper trail" should not give us comfort in any degree when the audit is not capable of detecting outcome altering fraud or mistake.

For further evidence and a graphic timeline of the national exit poll red shift on election night,
click here: http://electiondefensealliance.org/exit_poll_falsification_in_2004_election

An American Coup: (2002) Midterm Election Polls vs. Actuals

Go to original.
Alastair Thompson / November 12, 2002

In the interests of further examining the question of whether the vote in some races in the U.S. midterm elections was fixed by electronic voting machines supplied by republican affiliated companies, Scoop has done some digging. How accurate were the pollsters in advance of the US mid-term elections?

Scoop's analysis shows that - according to the polls - the Republican Party experienced a pronounced last minute swing in its favour of between 4 and 16 points. Remarkably this last minute swing appears to have been concentrated in its effects in critical Senate races (Georgia and Minnesota) where it secured it's complete control of Congress.

Scoop has compared the results of final week polling in 19 races, with the actual results in those same races.

The full details of the Scoop analysis follow below. In summary Scoop found:

- 14 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Republican Party (by between 3 and 16 points);
- 2 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Democratic Party (by 2 and 4 points);
- In three races the pollsters were close to correct;
- The largest post opinion poll vote swings occurred in Minnesota and Georgia where pollsters got the final result wrong (see: Pollsters defend their surveys in wake of upsets for more coverage of this issue);

- All the post polling swings in favour of the democratic party were within the margin of error.
- Several of the post polling swings in favour of the republican party were well outside the margin of error.
- In the states where the senate races were critical and close the swing was predominantly towards the Republicans, with the exceptions of Arkansas and Missouri. The level of post-poll swing in these races in favour of the Republican Party in each race were: North Carolina 3, Colorado 4, Georgia 9-12, Minnesota 8-11, Texas 3-11, New Hampshire 1.
- The state where the biggest upset occurred, Georgia, is also the state that ran its election with the most electronic voting machines.


Overall Positioning Poll
Democrats hold a slight lead -- 49 percent to 46 percent -- in the latest nationwide Gallup poll, conducted Oct. 21-22, which asked likely voters nationwide whether they plan to vote for Democratic or Republican candidates for Congress. "Generic" polls of this kind have been reliable indicators in the past. Republicans held a seven-point advantage in the generic poll just before their big victory in 1994, when they gained 52 seats.

This "generic" poll published two days before the election was wrong. The swing went the other way towards the Republicans.

POST POLL SWING: Towards Republicans

Florida Governor
A survey released Thursday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed Bush leading McBride 49 percent to 43 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A statewide Mason-Dixon poll out today finds the race at the same, 8-point differential as the Times-Herald poll, giving Bush a 51 percent to 43 percent edge over McBride.

The smallest lead for Gov. Jeb in the final round of polls is 6 points, while Zogby places the Bush lead at 16 points. Incumbency, a massive GOP fundraising edge, and a lot of federal money, plus the president's post-Sept. 11 surge in popularity won this race in the end for brother Jeb.

Final Result: 56 to 43 to Bush (13 points)

Polls had 6, 8 and 9 and 16 point margins, Bush got 13 at the upper end of the range

On average towards Republican Party.

Florida Thurman (House)

(POLITICAL POLL) But it's not encouraging for the incumbent to see 40 percent, plus or minus 5.8 percent, while her main opponent gets 38 percent -- even in a party-funded survey, Gonzales said.

Final Result: 48 to 46 to Brown Wait (2 points)

HOW ACCURATE? A GOP poll gave Thurman 2 points, she lost by 2.

POST POLL SWING: 4 points towards Republican Party.

Florida (House)
Having sweated through veteran Rep. Clay Shaw's closest-in-the-nation (599 votes) two years ago, Republicans feel he will easily defeat Palm Beach County Commissioner Carol Roberts in the coastal 22nd District this year. A just-completed American Viewpoint poll showed Shaw leading Roberts by 56% to 30%

Final Result: 60 to 39 Shaw (21 points)

HOW ACCURATE? Poll showed 26 points, result showed 21.

POST POLL SWING: 4 points towards Democratic Party

North Carolina

The statewide poll conducted Monday and Tuesday found that 48percent of voters said they support Dole, 42 percent now support Bowles, 2 percent support Libertarian Sean Haugh, and 8 percent remain undecided.

In North Carolina, an MSNBC/Zogby poll shows Republican Elizabeth Dole ahead of Democrat Erskine Bowles, 52% to 46%. But Bowles has been gaining in recent polls and has put nearly $2.2 million of his own money into the campaign since Oct. 17.

Final Result: 54 to 45 to Dole (9 points)

HOW ACCURATE? Polls said 6, Dole got 9.

POST POLL SWING: 3 points towards Republican Party.

Minnesota Senate
Oct 30. Dramatic political developments since Sen. Paul Wellstone's death Friday have had little effect on voters' leanings in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Star Tribune Minnesota Poll taken Monday night.Wellstone's likely replacement on the ballot, former Vice President Walter Mondale, leads Republican Norm Coleman by 47 to 39 percent -- close to where the race stood two weeks ago when Wellstone led Coleman 47 to 41 percent.

In Minnesota, a Minneapolis Star Tribune poll shows Democrat Walter Mondale ahead of Republican Norm Coleman, 46% to 41%. But a St. Paul Pioneer Press poll shows Coleman ahead, 47% to 41%.

Final Result: 50 to 47 Coleman (3 points)

HOW ACCURATE? Three polls gave Mondale 8,6 and 5 points, one poll have Coleman 6 points, Coleman got 3.

POST POLL SWING: (Excepting The Pioneer Press poll) Between 8 and 11 points to towards Republican Party.

Arkansas Senate
04 Nov 2002... In the Democrats' likeliest takeover contest, Pryor was ahead 51-43 in a CNN-USA
Today-Gallup poll ...

Democrats have a stronger lead in the fifth state, Arkansas. There, Democrat Mark Pryor enjoys an 8-percentage-point edge over GOP Sen. Tim Hutchinson.

By Monday, the latest Zogby poll showed Pryor with a 13-point edge, and even some in the Hutchinson camp seemed resigned to the inevitable.

Final Result: 54 to 46 to Pryor

HOW ACCURATE? Polls gave Pryor 9,8 and 13 points he got 9

POST POLL SWING: On average towards Republican Party.

Georgia Senate
Pollsters may have goofed in not picking up the Republican surge in Georgia, however, some pollsters said. In the Senate race, for instance, Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Max Cleland by a margin of 53 to 46 percent. The Hotline, a political news service, recalled a series of polls Wednesday showing that Chambliss had been ahead in none of them. The closest was the most recent Zogby International poll that had showed Cleland leading 46 to 44 percent, within the plus or minus 4 point margin of error.

In Georgia, an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll shows Democratic Sen. Max Cleland with a 49%-to-44% lead over Republican Rep. Saxby Chambliss.

Final Result: 53 to 46 percent Chambliss

HOW ACCURATE? Polls had Cleland winning by 2 and 5 points, he lost by 7

POST POLL SWING: 9 to 12 points towards Republican Party

Georgia Senate
Similarly, no polls predicted the upset victory in Georgia of Republican Sonny Perdue over incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes. Perdue won by a margin of 52 to 45 percent. The most recent Mason Dixon Poll had shown Barnes ahead 48 to 39 percent last month with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.

Final Result: 52 to 45 percent Perdue

HOW ACCURATE? Poll gave Barnes 9 points he lost by 7

POST POLL SWING: 16 points towards Republican Party

Alabama Governor
The latest public poll puts Riley 4 points up, but Republicans say the margin has widened.

Final Result: 49 to 49 Riley

HOW ACCURATE?: Poll had Riley by 4 points, the race was nearly a dead heat

POST POLL SWING: 4 points towards Republican Party.

Illinois Governor
In Illinois, Democratic congressman Rod Blagojevich has led Attorney General Jim Ryan handily in every poll except one. The last Zogby Poll has Ryan shaking off his association with outgoing Gov. George Ryan (no relation) and taking a slight lead. But no other poll has this race even close, so a GOP victory would still be a huge upset.

Zogby International polled 802 likely voters Wednesday through Friday and found each candidate was supported by just over 43 percent of respondents. The findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points.

Final Result: 52 to 45 Blagojevich

HOW ACCURATE? Not an upset. Poll showed 43 points each, result a 7 point win to Blagojevich.

POST POLL SWING: 7 points towards Republican Party.

Illinois House
A recent Public Opinion Strategies poll showed Shimkus (R) leading Phelps by a handsome 51% to 38%.

Final Result: 55 to 44 Shimkus

HOW ACCURATE? Poll said 13 result was 11

POST POLL SWING: 2 points towards Democratic Party.

Texas Senate
Web Posted : 11/04/2002 11:43 AM As Texas? top two candidates for the U.S. Senate make their way today to San Antonio, the latest poll shows the race has tightened to a dead heat. An MSNBC/Zogby poll released Sunday showed Republican John Cornyn with 49 percent of the vote and Democrat Ron Kirk with 48 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

Sunday, The Dallas Morning News had Cornyn with a 9-point lead in a poll that had a 3-point margin of error. The Houston Chronicle had Cornyn up by 6 points with nearly a 4-point margin of error.

In Texas, an MSNBC/Zogby International poll shows Republican John Cornyn's lead over Democrat Ron Kirk shrinking to 1 percentage point, 49% to 48%. Other polls give Cornyn a bigger lead.

Final Result: 55 to 43 Cornyn

HOW ACCURATE? Polls gave Cornyn 1, 6 and 9 points, he won by 12

POST POLL SWING: 3-11 points towards Republican Party.

Texas House
Democrats felt they had a chance at thwarting Hensarling with former jurist Ron Chapman, who has the same name as a popular disc jockey. But a Baseline poll shows Hensarling leading Chapman by 47% to 36%.

Final Result: 58 to 40 to Hensarling

HOW ACCURATE? Poll said 11 result was 18

POST POLL SWING: 7 points towards Republican Party.

Missouri Senate
A CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll Sunday night had Talent at 48, Carnahan at 44, with a 4 percent margin of error.

Another poll released Sunday shows a 46%-46% tie. That poll was by Zogby International for the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

Final Result: 50 to 49 Talent

HOW ACCURATE? One poll showed dead heat another gave Talent 4, he won by one


New Hampshire Senate
Write out -- The U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire between Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, and GOP U.S. Rep. John Sununu is shaping up to be a real nail biter. An American Research Group poll of 600 likely voters taken over the weekend has Sununu at 48 percent, Shaheen at 44 percent and 8 percent not sure or undecided with a margin of error of percent.

The number of unaffiliated voters keeps rising year by year ? it is now 37 percent of the electorate ? and polls show the two candidates virtually even, with Mr. Sununu leading in latest survey by 48 percent to 46 percent, well within the four-percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Final Result: 51 to 47 Sununu

HOW ACCURATE? Polls said 2 & 4, he won by 4

POST POLL SWING: On average towards Republican Party.

New Jersey Senator
The Quinnipiac University poll released Monday gives Lautenberg a 50 to 39 percent lead among likely voters, a tally that includes likely voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates. The survey of 574 likely voters, taken from Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, has a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In New Jersey, Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads Republican Doug Forrester, 42% to 37% with 8% undecided, in a poll by Gannett's daily newspapers there.

Final Result: 54 to 44 Lautenberg

HOW ACCURATE? Polls said Lautenberg by 5 and 11 points, he won by 10


South Dakota Senate
South Dakota: Republican Rep. John Thune holds a 48%-45% lead over Sen. Tim Johnson, a Democrat..

A poll by Zogby for MSNBC shows Johnson ahead, 52% to 47%. Two polls released late last week by the Sioux Falls Argus Leader and KELO-TV also showed Johnson leading, by smaller margins.

Final Result: 50 to 49 Johnson

Polls show Thune ahead by 3 and Johnson by 5, he won by 1


Colorado Senate
Colorado: Republican Sen. Wayne Allard is virtually deadlocked with Democrat Tom Strickland in a rematch from 1996. The poll found Allard ahead 47% to 45%, with 8% undecided.

Final Result: 51 to 45 Allard

HOW ACCURATE? Poll Gave Allard 2 he won by 6

POST POLL SWING: 4 points towards Republican Party.

Tennessee Governor
A survey of 819 people last week conducted for a Memphis newspaper and television station now shows Hilleary with a 41-to-39 percent lead over democrat Phil Bredesen. 15 percent remain undecided. Margin of error is 3-point-five percent.

The race is a close one. A Mason-Dixon poll of registered voters conducted Oct. 21-23 showed Bredesen with 45 percent and Hilleary with 42 percent, well within the margin of sampling error of 4 percentage points.

Final Result: 51 to 48 Bredesen

HOW ACCURATE? Poll gave Bredesen 3 he won by 3.


Falsification of Votes and Exit Poll Data in the 2004 Election

"The early exit polls appear to have caused some concern to the good people at the National Election Pool: a gap of 12 or 14 percent between tallied results and exit polls can hardly inspire confidence in the legitimacy of an election."


Timeline shows the midnight switch of voting reports and exit polls

Click here: http://electiondefensealliance.org/files/2004Election_ExitPollSwitch_Color.pdf


Footprints of Electoral Fraud: The November 2 Exit Poll Scam

by Michael Keefer

www.globalresearch.ca 5 November 2004
The URL of this article is: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/KEE411A.html

Republican electoral fraud in the 2004 presidential election was widely anticipated by informed observers--whose warnings about the opportunities for fraud offered by "black box" voting machines supplied and serviced by corporations closely aligned with Republican interests (and used to tally nearly a third of the votes cast on November 2) have been amply borne out by the results.1

One of the clear indicators of massive electoral fraud was the wide divergence, both nationally and in swing states, between exit poll results and the reported vote tallies. The major villains, it would seem, were the suppliers of touch-screen voting machines. There appears to be evidence, however, that the corporations responsible for assembling vote-counting and exit poll information may also have been complicit in the fraud.

Until recently, the major American corporate infomedia networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox, and AP) relied on a consortium known as the Voter News Service for vote-counting and exit poll information. But following the scandals and consequent embarrassments of the 2000 and 2002 elections, this consortium was disbanded. It was replaced in 2004 by a partnership of Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International known as the National Election Pool.

The National Election Pool’s own data—as transmitted by CNN on the evening of November 2 and the early morning of November 3—suggest very strongly that the results of the exit polls were themselves fiddled late on November 2 in order to make their numbers conform with the tabulated vote tallies.

It is important to remember how large the discrepancy was between the early vote tallies and the early exit poll figures. By the time polls were closing in the eastern states, the vote-count figures published by CNN showed Bush leading Kerry by a massive 11 percent margin. At 8:50 p.m. EST, Bush was credited with 6,590,476 votes, and Kerry with 5,239,414. This margin gradually shrank. By 9:00 p.m., Bush purportedly had 8,284,599 votes, and Kerry 6,703,874; by 9:06 p.m., Bush had 9,257,135, and Kerry had 7,652,510, giving the incumbent a 9 percent lead, with 54 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 45 percent.

At the same time, embarrassingly enough, the national exit poll figures reported by CNN showed Kerry as holding a narrow but potentially decisive lead over Bush. At 9:06 p.m. EST, the exit polls indicated that women’s votes (54 percent of the total) were going 54 percent to Kerry, 45 percent to Bush, and 1 percent to Nader; men’s votes (46 percent of the total) were breaking 51 percent to Bush, 47 percent to Kerry, and 1 percent to Nader. Kerry, in other words, was leading Bush by nearly 3 percent.

The early exit polls appear to have caused some concern to the good people at the National Election Pool: a gap of 12 or 14 percent between tallied results and exit polls can hardly inspire confidence in the legitimacy of an election.

One can surmise that instructions of two sorts were issued. The election-massagers working for Diebold, ES&S (Election Systems & Software) and the other suppliers of black-box voting machines may have been told to go easy on their manipulations of back-door ‘Democrat-Delete’ software: mere victory was what the Bush campaign wanted, not an implausible landslide. And the number crunchers at the National Election Pool may have been asked to fix up those awkward exit polls.

Fix them they did. When the national exit polls were last updated, at 1:36 a.m. EST on November 3, men’s votes (still 46 percent of the total) had gone 54 percent to Bush, 45 percent to Kerry, and 1 percent to Nader; women’s votes (54 percent of the total) had gone 47 percent to Bush, 52 percent to Kerry, and 1 percent to Nader.

But how do we know the fix was in? Because the exit poll data also included the total number of respondents. At 9:00 p.m. EST, this number was well over 13,000; by 1:36 a.m. EST on November 3 it had risen by less than 3 percent, to a final total of 13, 531 respondents—but with a corresponding swing of 5 percent from Kerry to Bush in voters’ reports of their choices. Given the increase in respondents, a swing of this size is a mathematical impossibility.

The same pattern is evident in the exit polls of two key swing states, Ohio and Florida.

At 7:32 p.m. EST, CNN was reporting the following exit poll data for Ohio. Women voters (53 percent of the total) favoured Kerry over Bush by 53 percent to 47 percent; male voters (47 percent of the total) preferred Kerry over Bush by 51 percent to 49 percent. Kerry was thus leading Bush by a little more than 4 percent. But by 1:41 a.m. EST on November 3, when the exit poll was last updated, a dramatic shift had occurred: women voters had split 50-50 in their preferences for Kerry and Bush, while men had swung to supporting Bush over Kerry by 52 percent to 47 percent. The final exit polls showed Bush leading in Ohio by 2.5 percent.

At 7:32 p.m., there were 1,963 respondents; at 1:41 a.m. on November 3, there was a final total of 2,020 respondents. These fifty-seven additional respondents must all have voted very powerfully for Bush—for while representing only a 2.8 percent increase in the number of respondents, they managed to produce a swing from Kerry to Bush of fully 6.5 percent.

In Florida, the exit polls appear to have been tampered with in a similar manner. At 8:40 p.m. EST, CNN was reporting exit polls that showed Kerry and Bush in a near dead heat. Women voters (54 percent of the total) preferred Kerry over Bush by 52 percent to 48 percent, while men (46 percent of the total) preferred Bush over Kerry by 52 percent to 47 percent, with 1 percent of their votes going to Nader. But the final update of the exit poll, made at 1:01 a.m. EST on November 3, showed a different pattern: women voters now narrowly preferred Bush over Kerry, by 50 percent to 49 percent, while the men preferred Bush by 53 percent to 46 percent, with 1 percent of the vote still going to Nader. These figures gave Bush a 4 percent lead over Kerry.

The number of exit poll respondents in Florida had risen only from 2,846 to 2,862. But once again, a powerful numerical magic was at work. A mere sixteen respondents—0.55 percent of the total number—produced a four percent swing to Bush.

What we are witnessing, the evidence would suggest, is a late-night contribution by the National Elections Pool to the rewriting of history.

It is possible that at some future moment questions about electoral fraud in the 2004 presidential election might become insistent enough to be embarrassing. The pundits, at that point, will be able to point to the NEP’s final exit poll figures in the decisive swing states of Florida and Ohio—and to marvel at how closely they reflect the NEP’s vote tallies.

The Ohio Fifty-Seven (is there a Heinz-Kerry joke embedded in the number?) and the Florida Sixteen will have done their bit in ensuring the democratic legitimacy of the one-party imperial state.

Michael Keefer, an Associate Professor of English at the University of Guelph, is a former president of the Association of Canadian College and University Teachers of English. His writings include Lunar Perspectives: Field Notes from the Culture Wars (Anansi) and the edited collection War Against Iraq: Critical Resources ( http://www.uoguelph.ca/~mkeefer ).


1. Among the warnings, see Bev Harris, Black Box Voting: Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century (Talion Publishing/Black Box Voting; free internet version available at www.BlackBoxVoting.org); Infernal Press, "How George W. Bush Won the 2004 Presidential Election" (Infernal Press, 25 June 2003); Steve Moore, "E-Democracy: Stealing the Election in 2004" (Global Outlook, No. 8, Summer 2004); and Greg Palast, "An Election Spolied Rotten" (www.TomPaine.com, 1 November 2004). Early assessments of the election include Greg Palast, "Kerry Won… Here are the Facts" (www.TomPaine.com, 4 November 2004); and Wayne Madsen, "Grand Theft Election" (www.globalresearch.ca, 5 November 2004).

2004Election_ExitPollSwitch_Color.pdf562.84 KB

Josh Mittledorf: Summary of 2004 Exit Poll Discrepancies

Click to download as a PDF document.