Exit Polls

One of the most important facts to understand about the 2004 presidential election is that the exit polls for that race were expertly conducted, scientific, and well-funded surveys of the actual vote in 2004. The original exit polls--which is to say the actual, true, unadulterated exit polls-- revealed a clear Kerry victory, before an offline, middle-of-the-night "adjustment" for a novel, unsubstantiated theory known as the "Reluctant Republican Responder" (rRr) effect.

Late on election night, Nov. 2, 2004, the computer servers conducting the central tabulation were said to be "down" for a several hour period. At the time, Kerry was leading in the exit polls by a significant margin. Miraculously, when the servers came back online, a flip had occurred in the direction of the numbers with Bush now leading Kerry. Soon the Bush "lead" seemed to be insurmountable. Kerry then conceded.

To better understand this "Red Shift" of 2004, as well as other information about exit polls, please explore the following reports, inquiries and analyses. See also this excellent video presentation by EDA's Jonathan Simon on the statistical impossibility of the Bush 2004 victory.